The Availability Heuristic Test

The availability heuristic is our tendency to overestimate the probability of events that are easily recalled, often because they're recent, emotionally charged, or frequently reported in media. This test will reveal how this bias affects your risk perception.

How This Test Works:

Risk Comparison: You'll compare the likelihood of different events
Your Intuition: Choose which scenario you think is more common
Reality Check: See how media coverage and vivid imagery affect your judgment

Time required: 2-3 minutes

Risk Perception Challenge

Which causes more deaths annually in the United States?

Think about your immediate reaction - which scenario feels more dangerous to you?

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Your Availability Heuristic Results

The Actual Numbers

🌪️

~80

Annual tornado deaths (US average)

💨

~4,000

Annual asthma deaths (US average)

Asthma causes approximately 50 times more deaths than tornadoes each year.

Why This Demonstrates the Availability Heuristic

🎬 Vivid & Dramatic

Tornadoes: Spectacular footage, dramatic destruction, extensive news coverage

Result: Easy to recall and imagine

📋 Quiet & Routine

Asthma: Individual medical cases, less newsworthy, happens privately

Result: Harder to recall specific instances

Our brains use the ease of recall as a shortcut for estimating probability. The more easily we can remember examples of something, the more common we think it is. This is why dramatic, well-publicized events feel more likely than they actually are.

Real-World Impact

This bias affects many important decisions:

Insurance: People over-insure against dramatic risks (plane crashes) and under-insure against common ones (disability)
Health: Fear of rare diseases while ignoring common health risks
Safety: Overestimating terrorism risk while underestimating car accident risk
Investment: Avoiding stocks after market crashes that get heavy media coverage

CognitiveBiasLabs.com

Learn More About the Availability Heuristic

This bias influences countless daily decisions. Want to understand how to recognize it?

Read Full Explanation